They've definitely toned it down, but I read the earlier post, even quoted a couple of parts.
The scary thing is, with four hurricanes hitting Florida, they have a pretty good idea what the storm can do. And this one packs more power then any of last year's four.
Anyone voluntarily staying in New Orleans is a Darwin Award nominee by default.
Not everyone staying in town is doing so voluntarily.
Some people simply do not have the financial or personal means to get out of the city. They have no cars, or no money for gas, or even for a bus ticket or a train ticket little say a plane ticket.
You would think the government would've rolled big vehicles in to help with the evac.
At least all the SUV and Hummer Dealers are gonna be emptied out. I heard the local government gave the authorities leave to commandeer any vehicle they thought would help with the evac.
Still, I'm so scared for everyone who may not make it out.
This is gonna be bad - I can only hope that sufficient warning was given on the mandatory evacuation order that most people got out - I do know there's one guy on the gearheads that is still in the city (???)
They're saying weeks before it's habital again - I have my doubts it'll happen that quickly - the Mississippi delta is a bad place for this to hit - it WILL change the course of the Mississippi river...
But property damage be damned - I'm just praying people got out and the death toll stays low.
They updated it. When the_gneech originally posted this, the forecast in the link above still said only 90% chance for Monday. Now it does, indeed, say 100% with the 4pm CDT update. :)
I can tell you from experience that when you're in the EYE of the hurricane...the sky is clear, the sun is shining (if it's daytime) and there's virtually NO WIND.
Then---as the trailing eye wall reaches you, everything goes to hell in a handcart, only from the OPPOSITE direction.
Yep! Wind/rain will be blasting...and then, within a minute, it all just STOPS. People go out, look around, and the "uninformed" think IT'S OVER.
Nope. Just setting up for round 2, as the BACK side of the eyewall comes roaring onto the scene. Since it's now blowing from the OPPOSITE direction, all the trees/signs/etc. that were bent over or at least weakened from the first part, will now get pushed the OTHER way---which is often the kiss of death for them as they break/fall over/crumble from the pounding wind and rain.
Lived through it once (in 1964, Hurricane Dora) and I don't EVER want to have that "experience" again---
I really pity the Gulf Coast folks, since the "newbies" there don't have ANY IDEA the nightmare they're in for...
Consider this, they are saying the winds could be 150-165 mph. That's comparable to an F2 tornado (113-157 mph) and unlike a tornado it's not going away in a few minutes. Anything that gets picked up by the winds becomes a missile be that a twig, board or whole chunk of roof. Anything that gets in the way is going to get hurt Bad! If the object is of any size it's going to punch a hole in what it hits. This is one of the concerns I have for the Superdome as a shelter. Yes it is designed to withstand 200 mph winds but what about debris hits? This is going to be a disaster in every sense of the word. While I don't particularly subscribe to it there are some people who are saying we are about to lose the city forever. I say it's going to be bad, with a clean up measured in years but New Orleans will still be there when it's done. The real question is how much will be left and how may lives will be lost.
I posted this to my own LJ, but will ask for prayers here as well - for all the folks down there. The family of a good friend of mine from church live in New Orleans, and earlier today the word from them was that they were going to wait it out - think they decided that before a mandatory evacuation was called for. I pray they got out.
I got to spend all day today at work, issuing forecasts on this storm to our company, answering questions, etc...
When out team of mets saw that come over the wire, it floored us. NWS just doesn't issue statements like that. A couple of the senior guys, who have worked dozens of hurricane seasons, have never seen anything like that come from NWS.
As we read it, the most frightening thing was that we all looked at each other, and said, "the bad thing is, I don't think they are being over-sensational." If it takes one of the "doomsday" paths, there won't be a hell of a lot left of the city.
The sad thing is the media has, for years, hyped ALL hurricanes "to the max", to the point that many people are simply numb to the usual media hysteria.
It's the "cry wolf" syndrome, and the tragedy will be that a certain percentage will think it's just the typical media hype once again---but this time it's not.
This one, like Andrew back in the 90s here in Florida, is "for real"---
I saw a couple of "I was going to try to ride it out, until they said it was a Category 5" comments on the Weather Channel earlier. Um, Category 3 and above is considered "catastrophic"...
Dude, when NOAA says "PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK", they mean it!
no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 08:54 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 09:07 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 09:09 pm (UTC)Mako
no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 01:40 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 09:25 pm (UTC)Most people think that kind of devastation can't seem to happen in the US.
Makes you glad we only get Nor'easters in winter, eh?
Lizard Rat out.
Hoping
no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 09:58 pm (UTC)They've definitely toned it down, but I read the earlier post, even quoted a couple of parts.
The scary thing is, with four hurricanes hitting Florida, they have a pretty good idea what the storm can do. And this one packs more power then any of last year's four.
Anyone voluntarily staying in New Orleans is a Darwin Award nominee by default.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 10:51 pm (UTC)Not everyone staying in town is doing so voluntarily.
Some people simply do not have the financial or personal means to get out of the city. They have no cars, or no money for gas, or even for a bus ticket or a train ticket little say a plane ticket.
That's just tragic.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 10:57 pm (UTC)Agreed. But I don't consider them staying voluntarily...they don't have a choice.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 10:58 pm (UTC)At least all the SUV and Hummer Dealers are gonna be emptied out. I heard the local government gave the authorities leave to commandeer any vehicle they thought would help with the evac.
Still, I'm so scared for everyone who may not make it out.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 10:01 pm (UTC)They're saying weeks before it's habital again - I have my doubts it'll happen that quickly - the Mississippi delta is a bad place for this to hit - it WILL change the course of the Mississippi river...
But property damage be damned - I'm just praying people got out and the death toll stays low.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 02:11 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 10:17 pm (UTC)and now they've just released a tornado watch for the area as well from the Florida Panhandle to Louisianna
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0752.html
no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 10:18 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 10:45 pm (UTC)Last I looked at the Monday morning forecast for New Orleans (local), it was projecting a 100% chance of rain, and winds of 80-100 mph from the NNE.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 12:42 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-28 11:58 pm (UTC)Then---as the trailing eye wall reaches you, everything goes to hell in a handcart, only from the OPPOSITE direction.
NOT fun---!!!
no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 12:50 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 01:36 am (UTC)Nope. Just setting up for round 2, as the BACK side of the eyewall comes roaring onto the scene. Since it's now blowing from the OPPOSITE direction, all the trees/signs/etc. that were bent over or at least weakened from the first part, will now get pushed the OTHER way---which is often the kiss of death for them as they break/fall over/crumble from the pounding wind and rain.
Lived through it once (in 1964, Hurricane Dora) and I don't EVER want to have that "experience" again---
I really pity the Gulf Coast folks, since the "newbies" there don't have ANY IDEA the nightmare they're in for...
no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 12:05 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 12:32 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 01:13 am (UTC)When out team of mets saw that come over the wire, it floored us. NWS just doesn't issue statements like that. A couple of the senior guys, who have worked dozens of hurricane seasons, have never seen anything like that come from NWS.
As we read it, the most frightening thing was that we all looked at each other, and said, "the bad thing is, I don't think they are being over-sensational." If it takes one of the "doomsday" paths, there won't be a hell of a lot left of the city.
This is just no good.
no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 01:41 am (UTC)It's the "cry wolf" syndrome, and the tragedy will be that a certain percentage will think it's just the typical media hype once again---but this time it's not.
This one, like Andrew back in the 90s here in Florida, is "for real"---
no subject
Date: 2005-08-29 02:44 am (UTC)Dude, when NOAA says "PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK", they mean it!
Eep. And, again, eep.